How about the fiber optic cable industry chain? How about the development of international fiber optic cables? An optical fiber is a communication cable composed of two or more glass or plastic optical fiber cores, which are located in a protective coating and covered by a plastic PVC outer sleeve. . The signal transmission along the internal optical fiber generally uses infrared rays. my country's optical fiber industry has developed rapidly in the past two years. However, due to the high technical requirements and large investment in optical fiber production, there are few domestic corresponding manufacturers and the output cannot meet the needs of cable formation. Currently, about 50% of the optical fiber in the domestic market is still imported from Corning and some Japanese companies.
2020 status and prospect analysis of optical fiber and cable industry
The optical fiber and cable industry is an important basic strategic industry for my country's national economy and information construction. Driven by major factors such as strong government support for informatization, increased demand for information consumption, advances in optical communication transmission technology and optical fiber and cable technology, the global and Chinese optical fiber and cable industry product development capabilities have steadily improved, and production processes have continued to improve. At the same time, the concentration of industry customers is gradually increasing, and centralized procurement methods are more common. Price and the overall strength of the company have become important factors affecting sales.
In the "Technology Development Roadmap of China's Optoelectronic Device Industry (2018-2022)" (hereinafter referred to as "Roadmap") released, in the next few years, with the further development of Internet services, the construction of mobile communication networks, and the large-scale FTTH With the promotion, the continuous realization of new applications such as the Internet of Things and cloud computing, the optical fiber and cable industry will usher in broader development opportunities. From the perspective of national informatization development, broadband China and "Internet+" have become national-level strategies. The optical fiber communication industry will become one of the most important drivers of rapid economic and social development, while optical fiber and cable are connecting and transmitting. Physical basis.
According to the analysis of the research report of China Research and Puhua, ``2020-2025 China's optical fiber and cable industry panoramic survey and development strategy research consulting report''
2020 status quo of optical fiber and cable industry
As the optical fiber communication system was gradually put into commercial use in the 1980s, the high bandwidth and low attenuation of optical fiber made the optical fiber communication technology develop rapidly on a global scale. In the past 10 years, driven by the growth of traffic demand and the construction of basic networks, the optical fiber market has achieved great development. In the past 10 years, the global optical fiber market has maintained a compound growth rate of 15%, and my country has maintained a compound growth rate of 25%. It also increased from 20% to 58%. Entering 2017, due to the constraints of the production capacity of optical rods and the increasing demand for optical fibers, the prices of optical fibers and cables have continued to maintain a high boom in both volume and price.
China's optical fiber and cable industry has developed from a simple import application to the world's largest market integrating R&D, production and application in the entire industry chain for 40 years. According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of 2018, China's annual optical fiber production capacity has exceeded 400 million core kilometers, accounting for 60% of the world's total production capacity; the annual self-produced optical fiber preform production capacity exceeds 10,000 tons, which can meet the annual optical fiber production capacity of 400 million core kilometers. In terms of application, China's three major operators purchased no less than 200 million core kilometers of optical fiber in 2018, accounting for more than 50% of global optical fiber usage.
The optical fiber and cable industry has formed a complete industrial chain system including optical rod manufacturing, optical fiber drawing, and optical cable manufacturing, and it also has a leading position in the global market. But one of the most fatal problems in the optical fiber and cable industry is that downstream customers are too concentrated. The industry's customers are mainly the three major operators, the government and some Internet companies. Among them, China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom account for about 80% of total domestic demand for optical fiber and cable. Therefore, the needs of operators have a significant impact on the fiber optic cable industry. This has resulted in the industry being very cyclical on the one hand, and demand fluctuates with the operator’s network construction; on the other hand, due to excessive reliance on the three major operators without pricing power, the three major operators are always in a strong position. Moreover, due to relatively low barriers to fiber drawing and fiber optic cable manufacturing, the total number of domestic fiber optic cable companies has reached more than 150, and operators have plenty of room for choice. Therefore, it is difficult to change the situation of fiber optic cable manufacturers being suppressed by operators in the short term.
In terms of volume, referring to China Mobile’s historical centralized procurement, a total of 177 million core kilometers were collected in 2017; the demand for half a year in 2018 was 110 million core kilometers, and the scale of this time China Mobile’s centralized procurement is about 105 million core kilometers. However, this scale is the consumption of the entire 2019. Compared with the centralized procurement in 17 and 18, China Mobile's optical fiber demand in 2019 has dropped by 50%.
For many years, the optical fiber and cable industry has been the main driving force for the growth of my country's electronic component industry and has made significant contributions to the development of the national economy. The effect of the electronic information industry system promoted by optical fiber and cable is gradually manifested. In recent years, driven by my country's large-scale communication construction demand, my country's optical fiber and cable industry has developed rapidly, and a complete industrial chain has been formed from optical fiber preform-optical fiber-optical cable-optical network products. China has become the world's most important fiber optic cable market and the world's largest fiber optic cable manufacturer. The development and growth of the optical fiber and cable industry has consolidated the foundation of my country's communications field, and has become an important support for my country's FT-TH and FTTA system adoption, triple play, large-scale 4G construction, and 5G exploration.
In fact, after double-digit growth in 2016 and 2017 in the entire optical fiber and cable market, the growth rate in 2018 has slowed down significantly by only 4%. Under the guidance of the "Broadband China" and "Optical Into Copper Retreat" policies, my country has been vigorously building home broadband optical fiber access networks since 2015, which has brought the golden three years of my country's optical fiber and cable industry, 2016 and 2017 This is also the reason for the high growth. As of April 2018, my country's optical fiber coverage rate reached 87.5%, and there is not much room for future penetration. Therefore, the future increase in optical fiber demand mainly depends on 5G construction.
However, since the laying of optical fibers in the bearer network during the 4G period in my country has been relatively saturated, the incremental demand during the 5G period is not as much as expected. CRU predicts that by 2021, global and Chinese fiber optic cable demand will reach 617 million core kilometers and 355 million core kilometers respectively, 3-4 times that of 4G. Although the absolute demand is still growing, the overall 5G demand only has an average annual compound growth of 5%, and it has been unable to achieve the double-digit growth rate in 16 and 17 years.
Therefore, based on the above analysis, when my country's optical fiber penetration rate is close to the ceiling and the demand for optical fiber brought by 5G is not as flexible as the demand for broadband optical fiber, the peak of the entire industry has passed, and the growth rate will slow down significantly in the next three to five years.
2020 fiber optic cable industry prospects
In recent years, with the vigorous development of Internet and mobile Internet business applications, my country's optical fiber and cable industry has also ushered in rapid development, and domestic optical fiber and cable demand has maintained a growth trend. After years of rapid growth, my country has become the world's factory in the optical fiber and cable industry, and a major manufacturer and exporter of optical fiber and cable products in the world. As an important cornerstone of "Broadband China", optical fiber and cable companies will benefit from trillions of investment. my country's optical fiber and cable industry will usher in a new round of development opportunities.